Defend Public Healthcare

The long term fiscal and economic outlook released this week by Ontario's Financial Accountability Office (FAO) shows that big increases in health care spending are required in the years ahead.   The FAO forecasts that provincial government spending on health care will increase from an average of 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 7.6% for years 2024 through 2031. It will then go to 8.3% in the 2030s and 9.1% in the 2040s. An increase from 6.4% of GDP to 9.1% is a big increase in health care's share of economic activity.   A key factor driving this is an aging population.  Older people need more health care. For the current decade (2020-30), the FAO forecasts provincial health care spending increases at 5% per year:   A key take away from this is that the health care workforce will need to expand.  The staff shortages that currently bedevil health care are going to get worse if there is not a concerted effort to recruit and retain health care staf...

Bowing to public pressure and the over-capacity crisis in our hospitals, the Ontario minister of health and long-term care, Eric Hoskins, announced Friday hospital funding of $187 million to deal with next year’s flu season. While this is significant it is inadequate for several reasons: The funding is for the  next fiscal year. In other words, the minister is merely leaking information that would normally be released with the Budget. Most of this is not new money. Following pressure from labour and the community, the minister announced  $100 million for hospitals last fall to fund 1,200 beds.  But the government also made clear that money may not continue in the next fiscal year starting April 2018 -- the continuation of the funding would depend on the "budgetary process".  So this announcement merely confirms that this money will continue at least one more year and, positively, that they will increase the annual funding...

A new report from the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) confirms the difficulties government cuts are placing on public health care in Ontario.   The FAO is a government-funded but somewhat independent office that reviews Ontario government economic and fiscal claims. This is not a left wing think tank -- rather it is very much part of the received establishment.   Its latest report notes that government spending plans will fall $4 billion short of what is required to maintain services at 2015/16 levels by 2018/19:  “If the quality and nature of public services remain unchanged over the outlook, the FAO estimates that program spending would need to increase by 2.7 per cent per year on average from 2014-15 to 2018-19. However, the 2016 Budget limits annual program spending growth to just 1.9 per cent on average, 0.8 percentage points lower than the growth in the underlying cost factors that drive public sector spending.” Moreover:   "T...

The Ontario Economy:   The 2015 Ontario Budget has revised the government's real growth estimate up significantly from its 2014 Fall Economic Fiscal Outlook.  Real growth for 2014 is now put at 2.2% for 2014, up from the fall forecast of 1.9% and real growth for 2015 is forecast at 2.7%, up from their fall forecast of 2.4%.  Both of these forecasts are slightly lower than the forecasts from the banks and other private sector forecasters.  With lower oil prices and a lower dollar, Ontario is now growing faster than the rest of Canada. Substantial Real Growth -- but who benefits?  Seven years ago (starting the latter half of 2008) there was a recession in Ontario.  It ended six years ago when economic growth began again in the third quarter of 2009 (i.e. July-Sept 2009).  Since that time there has been significant economic growth, placing the Ontario economy well above its pre-recession high.     Ontario, Gross Domestic Product...