Defend Public Healthcare

The Progressive Conservative government has justified its health restructuring plans with the claim that administrative expenses are much higher in Ontario than in Canada.  When introducing the reforms, health minister Christine Elliott  claimed , “Over the last five years, Ontario has spent 30% more than the Canadian average in administrative expenses on its health care system.”   Elliott did not indicate her source of information. Presumably, however, the Progressive Conservatives are referring to the CIHI simplified and user friendly “ Your Health System ” graphs. Those graphs show “administrative expenses” in Ontario at 5.8% in Ontario while it is 4.5% in Canada.   This CIHI measure is actually fairly narrowly defined. It is the percentage of “the legal entity’s” total expenses associated with the administrative, finance, human resources and communications functional centres. However “the legal entity” used for this estimate is [1] only...

The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) predicts significant deficits over the next several years - despite also predicting significant economic growth. Using the government's accounting method, the FAO is predicting budget deficits of $0.5 billion this year, increasing to $3.6 billion in 2021-22.  If   the FAO is right then we do have a problem in terms of building our campaigns for better funding. Deficits will be used to clobber popular expectations for improved public services.  Already the right has taken up the FAO report to spread the deficit alarm.   While the FAO does make some useful other points, its conclusions about the deficit are likely off base. Revenues and Expenditures: The FAO expects tax revenue to grow 3.9% on average over the next five years, slightly below their expectations for nominal economic growth.  This is significantly better than their forecast for expenditure growth of 3.3% (which, notably, is a little below the underly...

Yesterday’s third quarter report from the Ministry of F inance indicates that their estimate of the deficit for 2016/17 fiscal year has fallen by $2.4 billion -- from $4.3 billion to $1.9 billion. This despite the announcement of another $223 million in new spending increases for 2016/17.  If you recall, the government announced even more in-year spending increases in the fall for Hydro rebates and hospitals.   Since the 2016/17 Budget, they have now increased program spending about $ 1.1 billion through in-year increases .  That is an in-year increase in program spending of 0.9 2 %.   This is quite unusual for a government that typically under-spends their budget.   The new increased expenditures announced yesterday are mostly on a specific hospital based service and drugs: ·     Ontario Drug Benefit Program: an additional $106.0 million to address funding requirements for the Ontario Drug Benefit...

A new report from the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) confirms the difficulties government cuts are placing on public health care in Ontario.   The FAO is a government-funded but somewhat independent office that reviews Ontario government economic and fiscal claims. This is not a left wing think tank -- rather it is very much part of the received establishment.   Its latest report notes that government spending plans will fall $4 billion short of what is required to maintain services at 2015/16 levels by 2018/19:  “If the quality and nature of public services remain unchanged over the outlook, the FAO estimates that program spending would need to increase by 2.7 per cent per year on average from 2014-15 to 2018-19. However, the 2016 Budget limits annual program spending growth to just 1.9 per cent on average, 0.8 percentage points lower than the growth in the underlying cost factors that drive public sector spending.” Moreover:   "T...