$6 billion cut to Ontario health care budget predicted

Ted Ball, a well known and 'well connected' Ontario health care consultant, recently predicted major cuts for health care in Ontario:

"Here is my take on the future: I believe that by the Spring Budget of 2012 – five months after the election in October 2011 – whoever forms the Government (Liberals or Tories) – will be required to reduce public sector expenditures by $10 billion to $12 billion overall. Healthcare sector expenditures would be reduced in this scenario by $6 billion over 2012-2015.

"Call it a $2 billion a year reduction in net health sector spending for each of three years. Reallocations within the health spending envelope would also be significant as we shrink institutional care and expand community care and home care. But overall I believe it would be prudent to expect spending reductions of at least $6 billion of our $46 billion budget. That’s 13% -- just over 4% per year for three years.

"How is that possible? How can we cut that much money out of our healthcare system?

"There is a great deal of evidence that 30% of all of our current spending in healthcare has no value-- so some of us believe that we can easily take out $6 billion in inefficiencies and unleveraged spending, without causing any harm."

"Institutional care" (presumably meaning hospitals and long term care facilities) should bear the main brunt of the cuts according to Ball.

Ball was quite cocky, noting "For the most part, I’ve been fairly accurate on my 'informed guesses' over the years."

However, Ball did say in 2008 that “Health system leaders who believe there will be another bailout need a reality check." Yet, we see in the 2011 Budget that the provincial government agreed to set aside $600-$800 million over the next three years to bail out hospitals with debts (thanks, in part, to spirited community campaigns, no doubt).

Ball's latest prediction may prove overblown as well. Nevertheless, there is tremendous pressure from the corporate world to cut public spending and the security working people get from it. And if their is a majority government after the election, the influence of working people will be greatly reduced.

So, once the election is disposed of, the pressure to squeeze health care (and other public services that benefit working people) may well intensify.

To that extent, at least, I think Ball's remarks are worth considering.

Comments

More spending on new hospitals and new beds? Nope

Hospital funding: There is something off about the provincial government's Budget claims on hospital capital funding (funding to build and renovate hospital beds and facilities). For what it is worth (which is not that much, given the long time frame the government cites), the province claims it will increase hospital capital spending over the next 10 years from $11 billion to $20 billion – or on average to about $2 billion per year. But, this is just a notional increase from the previous announcement of future hospital capital spending. Moreover, even if we did take this as a serious promise and not just a wisp of smoke, the government's own reports shows they have actually funded hospital infrastructure about $3 billion a year over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. So this “increase” is really a decrease from past actual spending. Even last year's (2016-17) hospital capital funding increase was reported in this Budget at $2.3 billion - i.e. about 15% more th

Ford government fails to respond to 72% increase in COVID inpatient days, deepening the capacity crisis

COVID infections continue to drive up hospital costs and inpatient hospitalizations in Ontario. For the most recent fiscal year (April 1, 2022- March 31, 2023) hospital stays related to COVID cost $1.221 billion, according to new CIHI data. This is about 4% of total hospital spending, creating a very significant new cost pressure beyond the usual pressures of population growth, aging, inflation, and rising utilization. Costs for COVID related hospitalizations increased 22.2% in Ontario in 2022/23 from the previous fiscal year, rising from $999 million to $1.221 billion. That rise is particularly notable as the OMICRON spike of late 2021 and early 2022 had passed by the the 2022/23 fiscal year. The $222 million increase in COVID hospitalization costs came in the same year as the Ford government cut special COVID funding and, in fact, cut total hospital funding by $156 million. In total, there were 60,653 COVID hospitalizations in Ontario in 2022/3, up from 47,543 in 2021/2.

Paramedic Services in Canada: Structure, Privatization, Unionization and other issues

Governance and Funding : While police and fire services are usually municipal services, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are typically controlled by provincial governments. In Ontario, regional municipal governments have responsibility for delivering and funding EMS. But even in Ontario the province plays a key role, strictly regulating EMS, providing funding for 50% of the approved land ambulance costs, and paying 100% of the approved costs for air ambulance, dispatch, base hospitals, First Nation EMS, and for territories without municipal government. Delivery : Like police and fire services, EMS is predominantly a publicly provided service in Canada. But businesses have now made some significant in-roads into EMS, primarily Medavie, a private corporation based in the Maritimes that describes itself as not-for-profit. Medavie goes back over 70 years, with its roots in health insurance. It still operates Medavie Blue Cross with 1,900 employees. It now a

Defend Public Healthcare

Search This Blog