Skip to main content

Concession demands grow -- as Ontario economy grows

The Ontario government opened with the idea of a compensation freeze for public sector workers -- but now they appear to be calling for concessions. The Globe reports today that they simply demanded teachers accept a pay freeze for two years, no movement within the existing salary grid, and an end to retirement payouts for unused sick days.  


This while the Ontario economy continues to grow -- as it has since the latter part of 2009.  

Real growth of the Ontario economy over the first two years of the CUPE central hospital collective agreement (from the fall of 2009 to the fall of 2011) was 5.5% according to Ontario government figures.  Growth in terms of nominal dollars (i.e. growth including inflation) was 9.8%, with the economy growing from $582.2 billion to $639.4 billion. Workers wages, are, of course, paid in nominal dollars -- and have not increased at that rate in the hospital sector or elsewhere.

Over the calendar years 2009, 2010, and 2011 inflation increased 6%, exactly the same as the general wage increases for those years in the CUPE central agreement. For 2012, the Ontario government estimates inflation at 1.7% (half a percent lower than it's current annual rate of 2.2%).

TABLE 2.6 Ontario Economic Outlook
(Per Cent)

2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
Real GDP Growth
(3.2)
3.0
1.8e
1.7
2.2
2.4
2.5
Nominal GDP Growth
(0.9)
5.3
4.2e
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.3
Employment Growth
(2.5)
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.6
CPI Inflation
0.4
2.5
3.1
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
e = estimate. p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection.
Source: Ontario Budget 2012, Table 2.6

Given the recession in 2009, total real economic growth over the calendar years 2009, 2010, and 2011 is estimated at only 1.5%, with another 1.7% estimated for 2012 (or 3.23% over the four years).  Nominal growth over 2009, 2010, and 2011 was estimated at 8.7%, with another 3.4% expected in 2012 (or 12.4% in total). These growth figures are a little worse than the first two years of the hospital agreement as they include most of the 2008/9 recession (which ended just as the hospital agreement began). 


The Ontario government is projecting economic growth in the period ahead. It estimates 1.7% growth in 2012, 2.2% in 2013, 2.4% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015.

These growth estimates tend to be slightly lower than the government’s estimates in the fall of 2011. Private sector forecasts are slightly higher than government forecasts, but have also tended lower.


The Ontario 2012 Budget also reports that corporate profits increased 19% in 2010 and estimates a further growth of 13.8% in 2011. Corporate profits are estimated to increase a further 4.0% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013. (This, of course, follows sharp declines in profits during the recession.)


Any way you slice it, the economy is growing -- and someone is getting that benefit.   But it is not workers.  CUPE hospital workers have kept up with inflation -- but only just.  And many other workers, in the public sector and private sector, have done worse.
  

Comments

  1. "Over the calendar years 2009, 2010, and 2011 inflation increased 6%, exactly the same as the general wage increases for those years in the CUPE central agreement."


    While I support unions, I have to point out my hubby and I worked for over 40 years...never for a union (unfortunately). Retired now, I can assure you we don't make a 6% increase in our income each year....not close. I wish the unions would find a way to support increases to those not fortunate enough to work in a unionized environment.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for your comment.

    I should note, however, that the CUPE central agreement only allows 2% annual increases in 2009, 2010, and 2011, not 6%.

    I agree that union's need to work with non-unionized workers to help improve their pay. OCHU has done a lot of work lately with the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty. The joint campaign has garnered significant media attention regarding the dire situation of the poor. But, no doubt, more needs to be done....

    ReplyDelete
  4. I understand, but that's 2% more than we are getting.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

More spending on new hospitals and new beds? Nope

Hospital funding:  There is something off about the provincial government's Budget claims on hospital capital funding (funding to build and renovate hospital beds and facilities).    For what it is worth (which is not that much, given the long time frame the government cites), the province claims it will increase hospital capital spending over the next 10 years from $11 billion to $20 billion – or on average to about $2 billion per year.   But, this is just a notional increase from the previous announcement of future hospital capital spending.  Moreover, even if we did take this as a serious promise and not just a wisp of smoke, the government's own reports shows they have actually funded hospital infrastructure about $3 billion a year over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. So this “increase” is really a decrease from past actual spending. Even last year's (2016-17) hospital capital funding increase was reported in this Budget at $2.3 billion - i.e. about 15% more th

Ford government fails to respond to 72% increase in COVID inpatient days, deepening the capacity crisis

COVID infections continue to drive up hospital costs and inpatient hospitalizations in Ontario. For the most recent fiscal year (April 1, 2022- March 31, 2023) hospital stays related to COVID cost $1.221 billion, according to new CIHI data.   This is about 4% of total hospital spending, creating a very significant new cost pressure beyond the usual pressures of population growth, aging, inflation, and rising utilization.   Costs for COVID related hospitalizations increased 22.2% in Ontario in 2022/23 from the previous fiscal year, rising from $999 million to $1.221 billion.  That rise is particularly notable as the OMICRON spike of late 2021 and early 2022 had passed by the the 2022/23 fiscal year.   The $222 million increase in COVID hospitalization costs came in the same year as the Ford government cut special COVID funding and, in fact, cut total hospital funding by $156 million.     In total, there were 60,653 COVID hospitalizations in Ontario in 2022/3, up from 47,543 in 2021/2. 

Paramedic Services in Canada: Structure, Privatization, Unionization and other issues

Governance and Funding :  While police and fire services are usually municipal services, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are typically controlled by provincial governments.  In Ontario, regional municipal governments have responsibility for delivering and funding EMS.  But even in Ontario the province plays a key role, strictly regulating EMS, providing funding for 50% of the approved land ambulance costs, and paying 100% of the approved costs for air ambulance, dispatch, base hospitals, First Nation EMS, and for territories without municipal government. Delivery :  Like police and fire services, EMS is predominantly a publicly provided service in Canada.   But businesses have now made some significant in-roads into EMS, primarily  Medavie,  a private corporation based in the Maritimes that describes itself as not-for-profit.  Medavie goes back over 70 years, with its roots in health insurance.  It still operates Medavie Blue Cross with 1,900 employees.  It now a