Defend Public Healthcare

There has been a general trend downwards in public sector employment in Ontario according to Statistics Canada. In the last two years, Ontario has lost 19,000 public sector workers, with most of the loss occurring in the last year. The downwards trend in Ontario contrasts with the upward trend across the rest of Canada.  While Ontario lost over the last two years, the rest of Canada gained 73,400. Over the last year the rest of Canada gained 65,300 public sector jobs, while Ontario lost 12,700 public sector jobs. This may understate the cuts in the Ontario broader provincial public sector (i.e. public sector workers, like health care workers, that are primarily funded by the province, excluding federal and municipal employees). Austerity has been much harsher for the Ontario government than the federal and Ontario municipal governments. So the Ontario broader provincial cuts may be softened by modest growth in the federal and municipal sectors. The level of public

Health care and hospital funding : Despite significant new revenue and lower than expected debt costs, health care spending is almost exactly identical to the amounts planned in last year’s Budget for 2015-2018.  The total health budget for 2015/16 came in (on an “interim” basis) basically the same as planned in the 2015 Budget (that is unusual, more often they under-spend the health budget).    For 2016/17 and 2017/18, they plan to keep basically to the targets set out in the 2015 budget (plus a small increase of $100 million in each of those two years -- an extra 0.2%).  Overall, health is planned to increase 1.97% in 2016/17 and 1.93% in 2017/18. That will see health expenditures fall again as a percentage of the economy but is a little bit higher than the planned all-program expense increase (of 1% in 2016/17 and 1.7% in 2017/18).  That is far short of costs pressure due to increased utilization, aging, population growth, and inflation.  Hospitals are budgete

Federal Health Cash Transfers  ("CHT") to the Ontario government will rise 5.94% in 2016/17, or by $778 million. This, in itself, would pay for a 1.5% increase in Ontario health care funding even without a single extra penny from Ontario tax revenues.  This follows a $736 million increase (5.96%) to federal health care cash transfers to the province of Ontario for this year. Despite this, the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) estimates that total health funding by the Ontario government is only going up by about $352 million this year -- or about 0.7%. This falls well short of aging, inflation, utilization, and population growth cost pressures and deepens  the trend in recent years to reduce health care and hospital funding in real terms.  So far, there are precious few signs that the government will reverse its policy of health care austerity in its upcoming 2016/17 budget. Likely, Ontario funding will fall far behind federal health care funding once

Shocker.  The Ontario government is forecasting that it will beat its deficit forecast -- for the seventh year in a row . The deficit for this year is forecast in t he province's Fall  Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review  to be $1 billion less than forecast in the spring 2015 Budget .  The forecast for next year is already $300 million less than in the 2015 Budget.  That would make eight years in a row. For this year, the decline in the deficit was driven by higher than expected revenue ($1.245 billion more revenue,  primarily due to an underestimation of revenue from the Hydro sell-off and $600 million higher than forecast revenue from personal income and land transfer taxes).  Lower than expected interest expense on debt ($140 million) has also helped.  Program spending however is $397 million higher than expected.   The major in-year increases in spending compared with the 2015 Budget are in two areas, the Hydro privatization and the new Green Investment Fund:

Four of the big Canadian banks have come out with new forecasts for the Ontario economy and they all indicate the economy is improving.   The fall in the price of oil (and, with it, the Canadian dollar) is paying off for Ontario.    All four banks predict that Ontario will have the fastest growing provincial economy in 2015.  And all implicitly suggest that the Ontario government's Fall Economic and Fiscal Review is now out of date. (See the chart  below comparing bank and government forecasts.) On average the banks predict that the economy will grow 0.3% more more quickly in 2014 than the Ontario government predicted in its Fall Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review . Nominal growth (real growth and changes in market prices due to inflation) is predicted to grow half a percent faster.  Similarly, growth is predicted to exceed the government's forecast for 2015 as well, with real growth reaching 2.7% and nominal growth reaching 4.7%.   By 2015, the new bank f