Skip to main content

Ruling circles in G20 spilt: Will public sector cuts push us into a second recession?

The move to cut public services has gained more speed.  Prime Minister Harper has now praised the (savage) cuts the new British government is proposing and has called it a model for the G20 (which subsequently agreed to pursue deficit reduction).  Harper, in effect, is joining  a growing movement in European counties to move away from the policy of public sector spending to stimulate the economy and towards a policy of public sector cuts to reduce government deficits.

Notably, other ruling circles believe that the world economy is still in danger of falling into a second  recession and that the private sector still needs a public sector stimulus.  Obama falls into this camp, but he is less and less able to deliver the goods, with more and more resistance in Congress.  More successfully, China is spending $123 billion to expand public health care insurance and its economy (like much of the rest of the developing world) is growing strongly.

How this will pay out is unclear, at least to this non-economist. 

But four points do seem apparent: [1] While we had a world united around a policy of economic stimulation through public sector spending, this is no longer true.  Instead, some countries continue to stimulate demand while others are sharply stifling demand by cutting public sector spending.  In short, the various national policies seem contradictory, at least at the moment. [2]   Government policy in the most highly developed countries is moving from stimulus to public sector spending cuts.  [3] While public sector stimulus spending went almost entirely on funding and reviving private business, it is public sector social services that are now being cut.  And that will mean less for working people. [4] While public sector spending helped private business come out of recession, the new, emerging policy of cuts introduces a new element, one with significant risk to the economy. Who is going to buy? Indeed, Paul Krugman, the economist and Nobel laureate, reviewing the G20 proposal to cut public spending concluded this yesterday on the New York Times web site: "We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression."

The British Conservative-Liberal government introduced these cuts to the public sector after campaigning (just last month) on vaguely progressive platforms.  Now they sound like Margaret Thatcher on a bad day.  Policy is changing for Canadian governments too and this will likely have bad consequences for public sector services and working people. -- Doug


P.S. Paul Krugman's article can be found here.   Or, for a Canadian perspective on the threat to the economy of public sector cuts: "The Harper plan for global recession".  It's by James Laxer and was published by rabble.ca, a Canadian news commentary site that is pretty friendly to working people. -- D.

dallan@cupe.ca

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Ford government fails to respond to 72% increase in COVID inpatient days, deepening the capacity crisis

COVID infections continue to drive up hospital costs and inpatient hospitalizations in Ontario. For the most recent fiscal year (April 1, 2022- March 31, 2023) hospital stays related to COVID cost $1.221 billion, according to new CIHI data.   This is about 4% of total hospital spending, creating a very significant new cost pressure beyond the usual pressures of population growth, aging, inflation, and rising utilization.   Costs for COVID related hospitalizations increased 22.2% in Ontario in 2022/23 from the previous fiscal year, rising from $999 million to $1.221 billion.  That rise is particularly notable as the OMICRON spike of late 2021 and early 2022 had passed by the the 2022/23 fiscal year.   The $222 million increase in COVID hospitalization costs came in the same year as the Ford government cut special COVID funding and, in fact, cut total hospital funding by $156 million.     In total, there were 60,653 COVID hospitalizations...

The hospital crisis: No capacity, no plan, no end

While Canada has achieved universal public healthcare coverage, that does not mean conservative forces have given up trying to erode that coverage and expand corporate care where it does not currently exist. The battle has become particularly intense in Ontario under the Ford Progressive Conservative government, which is implementing serious cuts to the level of care and moving to bring in for-profit mini-hospitals. Inadequate Staffing.   Less and less of hospital spending is on staff.   Employee compensation as a share of hospital expenditures has consistently shrunk in Ontario. This is not some immutable law of hospital development.  It is in stark contrast with the rest of Canada, where compensation has become a larger share and now accounts for 67.1%. Hospitals in provinces other than Ontario now have 18 percent more staff per capita than hospitals in Ontario. Overall, if Ontario had the same staffing capacity as the other provinces and territories, there would be another...

Too many public sector workers in Ontario?

Opponents of public services often try to portray the public sector as having grown disproportionately.  In fact, since 1976, the number of public sector employees has not quite kept pace with the population. In 1976, the number of public sector employees in Ontario  as reported by Statistics Canada averaged 830,800.  By 2012, the number had increased to 1,330,700 -- a 60.2% increase.  That sounds like significant growth -- true. But the population has increased  from 8,413,779 in 1976 to 13,505,900 in 2012, a 60.5% increase.   In other words, population growth has run slightly ahead of the growth in public sector employment.     In 1976, close to 10% of the population worked in the public sector.  It stayed pretty much this way until the Mike Harris government came to power when it dipped below 9%.  It returned close to the historical range in the last six years or so, declining in 2012 to below the 1976 averag...