Ford government will not spend $2 billion of its budget -- deficit on track to fall $3 billion

As usual, the provincial government is under-spending its (revised) budget. Based on figures for provincial expenditures for the the first nine months of the fiscal year, the government-funded Financial Accountability Office (FAO) estimates that the government will under-spend its budget by about $2 billion this year.

While that sounds like quite a bit -- it is actually less than usual. Over the last ten years, the province has spent $3.3 billion less than budgeted on average.

Combined with the expected non-use of the government’s $1 billion "reserve" (the reserve is an amount set aside every year for unexpected expenses), the FAO estimates the deficit will be only $6.1 billion, almost $3 billion less than predicted in the government’s own, very recent third-quarter report.

Health care expenditures are under-spent by $400 million (0.9%) through the first three quarters of the fiscal year, primarily due to under-spending on LHINs for hospitals, LTC, home care, etc. (0.5% less), capital projects (37.4% less), drug programs (7.9% less). Spending on OHIP (doctors) was 2.9% above their (already upwardly revised) budget.

Notably, the report (in Table 4) also shows how much extra we have won for specific programs since the Budget – and the percentage of their total budget actually spent through the 3^rd quarter (i.e. through 75% of the fiscal year).

Expenditures on LHINs (for hospitals, LTC, home care, etc.) were bumped up $110 million since the Budget -- and they have received 74.4% of this through the first 75% of the year
“Official health agencies” (presumably Public Health units) won an extra $40.7 million, but have only gotten 70.4% of their total through 75% of the year
Ambulance services won an extra $26.3 million since the Budget, but have only received 73.6% of their total revised budget through 75% of the year
Major hospital capital projects won zero extra since the Budget and have received only 50.9% of their total budgeted amount for the first 75% of the year.

The FAO continues to deliver very useful reports that expand public understanding of provincial spending. How long will this last before government finds a way to make it stop? A link to this FAO report is here: https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/2019-20-expenditure-monitor-q3

Comments

More spending on new hospitals and new beds? Nope

Hospital funding: There is something off about the provincial government's Budget claims on hospital capital funding (funding to build and renovate hospital beds and facilities). For what it is worth (which is not that much, given the long time frame the government cites), the province claims it will increase hospital capital spending over the next 10 years from $11 billion to $20 billion – or on average to about $2 billion per year. But, this is just a notional increase from the previous announcement of future hospital capital spending. Moreover, even if we did take this as a serious promise and not just a wisp of smoke, the government's own reports shows they have actually funded hospital infrastructure about $3 billion a year over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. So this “increase” is really a decrease from past actual spending. Even last year's (2016-17) hospital capital funding increase was reported in this Budget at $2.3 billion - i.e. about 15% more th

Ford government fails to respond to 72% increase in COVID inpatient days, deepening the capacity crisis

COVID infections continue to drive up hospital costs and inpatient hospitalizations in Ontario. For the most recent fiscal year (April 1, 2022- March 31, 2023) hospital stays related to COVID cost $1.221 billion, according to new CIHI data. This is about 4% of total hospital spending, creating a very significant new cost pressure beyond the usual pressures of population growth, aging, inflation, and rising utilization. Costs for COVID related hospitalizations increased 22.2% in Ontario in 2022/23 from the previous fiscal year, rising from $999 million to $1.221 billion. That rise is particularly notable as the OMICRON spike of late 2021 and early 2022 had passed by the the 2022/23 fiscal year. The $222 million increase in COVID hospitalization costs came in the same year as the Ford government cut special COVID funding and, in fact, cut total hospital funding by $156 million. In total, there were 60,653 COVID hospitalizations in Ontario in 2022/3, up from 47,543 in 2021/2.

Paramedic Services in Canada: Structure, Privatization, Unionization and other issues

Governance and Funding : While police and fire services are usually municipal services, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are typically controlled by provincial governments. In Ontario, regional municipal governments have responsibility for delivering and funding EMS. But even in Ontario the province plays a key role, strictly regulating EMS, providing funding for 50% of the approved land ambulance costs, and paying 100% of the approved costs for air ambulance, dispatch, base hospitals, First Nation EMS, and for territories without municipal government. Delivery : Like police and fire services, EMS is predominantly a publicly provided service in Canada. But businesses have now made some significant in-roads into EMS, primarily Medavie, a private corporation based in the Maritimes that describes itself as not-for-profit. Medavie goes back over 70 years, with its roots in health insurance. It still operates Medavie Blue Cross with 1,900 employees. It now a

Defend Public Healthcare

Search This Blog