Ford government will not spend $2 billion of its budget -- deficit on track to fall $3 billion

As usual, the provincial government is under-spending its (revised) budget. Based on figures for provincial expenditures for the the first nine months of the fiscal year, the government-funded Financial Accountability Office (FAO) estimates that the government will under-spend its budget by about $2 billion this year.

While that sounds like quite a bit -- it is actually less than usual. Over the last ten years, the province has spent $3.3 billion less than budgeted on average.

Combined with the expected non-use of the government’s $1 billion "reserve" (the reserve is an amount set aside every year for unexpected expenses), the FAO estimates the deficit will be only $6.1 billion, almost $3 billion less than predicted in the government’s own, very recent third-quarter report.

Health care expenditures are under-spent by $400 million (0.9%) through the first three quarters of the fiscal year, primarily due to under-spending on LHINs for hospitals, LTC, home care, etc. (0.5% less), capital projects (37.4% less), drug programs (7.9% less). Spending on OHIP (doctors) was 2.9% above their (already upwardly revised) budget.

Notably, the report (in Table 4) also shows how much extra we have won for specific programs since the Budget – and the percentage of their total budget actually spent through the 3^rd quarter (i.e. through 75% of the fiscal year).

Expenditures on LHINs (for hospitals, LTC, home care, etc.) were bumped up $110 million since the Budget -- and they have received 74.4% of this through the first 75% of the year
“Official health agencies” (presumably Public Health units) won an extra $40.7 million, but have only gotten 70.4% of their total through 75% of the year
Ambulance services won an extra $26.3 million since the Budget, but have only received 73.6% of their total revised budget through 75% of the year
Major hospital capital projects won zero extra since the Budget and have received only 50.9% of their total budgeted amount for the first 75% of the year.

The FAO continues to deliver very useful reports that expand public understanding of provincial spending. How long will this last before government finds a way to make it stop? A link to this FAO report is here: https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/2019-20-expenditure-monitor-q3

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