Defend Public Healthcare

Buried in this week's Financial Accountability Office (FAO) report on the Ontario government books is a very quiet admission that Ontario ran a surplus of $700 million in 2017/18 (when using the government's accounting method for pension surpluses and hydro).  Just a year ago, the FAO claimed there would be a deficit of $500 million. This $1.2 billion over-estimate is not surprising. The FAO has consistently cried wolf.   A year ago, they put the 2016/17 deficit at $2.8 billion  (when using the government's accounting methods) .   Now they put it at $1 billion with the same accounting methods.   Towards the end of the 2015/16 fiscal year they overestimated the deficit for that year by $3.3 billion to $5 billion more than they subsequently admitted.  Even after that fiscal year ended, they put it at $2.2 billion more than they later admitted. Now the FAO has changed its accounting methods (following the Auditor General) to claim a much higher deficit.  Accordingly it t

The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) predicts significant deficits over the next several years - despite also predicting significant economic growth. Using the government's accounting method, the FAO is predicting budget deficits of $0.5 billion this year, increasing to $3.6 billion in 2021-22.  If   the FAO is right then we do have a problem in terms of building our campaigns for better funding. Deficits will be used to clobber popular expectations for improved public services.  Already the right has taken up the FAO report to spread the deficit alarm.   While the FAO does make some useful other points, its conclusions about the deficit are likely off base. Revenues and Expenditures: The FAO expects tax revenue to grow 3.9% on average over the next five years, slightly below their expectations for nominal economic growth.  This is significantly better than their forecast for expenditure growth of 3.3% (which, notably, is a little below the underlying cost and demogra

In  the lead up to the Budget, the government crowed  that they had heard the public and would improve funding for hospitals. However, based on government  announcements, they actually plan to lower the hospital funding increase this year.   They state they will increase hospital funding $518 million, a 3% increase.  But, on closer inspection, the funding increase announced for last year was significantly higher. In the 2016 Budget, Ontario announced that it would increase hospital funding $345 million -- about a 2% increase.  Subsequently, the government announced another $140.3 million for hospital funding in the Fall Economic Statement – bringing the total increase to $485 million.   That is, of course, already quite close to the much ballyhooed hospital funding increase of $518 million for 2017/18.  But it looks very much like the actual hospital funding increase in 2016/17 was higher than $485 million – higher in fact than the $518 million increase announced for 2017

Hospital funding:  There is something off about the provincial government's Budget claims on hospital capital funding (funding to build and renovate hospital beds and facilities).    For what it is worth (which is not that much, given the long time frame the government cites), the province claims it will increase hospital capital spending over the next 10 years from $11 billion to $20 billion – or on average to about $2 billion per year.   But, this is just a notional increase from the previous announcement of future hospital capital spending.  Moreover, even if we did take this as a serious promise and not just a wisp of smoke, the government's own reports shows they have actually funded hospital infrastructure about $3 billion a year over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. So this “increase” is really a decrease from past actual spending. Even last year's (2016-17) hospital capital funding increase was reported in this Budget at $2.3 billion - i.e. about 15% more th

Yesterday’s third quarter report from the Ministry of F inance indicates that their estimate of the deficit for 2016/17 fiscal year has fallen by $2.4 billion -- from $4.3 billion to $1.9 billion. This despite the announcement of another $223 million in new spending increases for 2016/17.  If you recall, the government announced even more in-year spending increases in the fall for Hydro rebates and hospitals.   Since the 2016/17 Budget, they have now increased program spending about $ 1.1 billion through in-year increases .  That is an in-year increase in program spending of 0.9 2 %.   This is quite unusual for a government that typically under-spends their budget.   The new increased expenditures announced yesterday are mostly on a specific hospital based service and drugs: ·     Ontario Drug Benefit Program: an additional $106.0 million to address funding requirements for the Ontario Drug Benefit program. ·     Malignant Hematology including Ste

The experts appointed to review the claim by the Auditor General that the surpluses in the teacher and civil servant pension plans cannot be counted as government  assets have reported .   Importantly they have sided with the government and against the Auditor General, Bonnie Lysyk. Lysyk's pension surplus accounting policy required the government to add $10 billion to the provincial debt and $1.5 billion to the deficit last fall. Only then did she  approve the final provincial government books for 2015-16 (the Public Accounts).   The government estimates this policy would add $2.2 billion to the deficit this fiscal year (2016-17).   Indeed, a ccording to the Finance Ministry's Fall Economic Statement t he extra program expense associated with this policy is increasing at a rate of $600 to $900 million per year through until at least 2018-19.   The Minis try of Finance reports that this policy would add $2.8 billion   in program expense in 2017/18 and $3.7 billi

  The government's unaudited financial statements for 2015-16 have been released (in lieu of the Public Accounts) and the deficit is down another $700 million from the last government estimate. Combined with earlier reductions, that means they came in with a deficit $3.5 billion less than they originally budgeted for 2015-16 in the 2015 budget.  Revenue for 2015-16 is up   $4 billion compared with the 2015 Budget forecast and up $2 billion from the 2016-17 Budget estimate for 2015-16.  This is good news.  After years of disappointing increases in revenue, we now have a whopper of a year. Revenue increased $9.8 billion between 2014/15 and 2015/16 - - that is an 8.3% increase. Two billion of this is related to the Hydro sell-off.  But there are big increases in revenue from corporate taxes (up 19%), income taxes (up 6.2%) and sales taxes (up 8.1%). Money is rolling in. Interest on debt is down $400 million compared to the 2015 Budget estimate and down $200 mi